October 2026 farm margins: a tonne of cashew now buys 31% less diesel than in April

October 31, 2026

Wordless fine-line illustration: A farmer's flatbed truck at a fuel pump beside a cashew drying yard, the pump hose heavy and the sacks of nuts stacked low on the scales

Input costs were reset in May; October’s official data will show whether farm-gate prices have caught up.

One tonne of raw cashew sold at Mozambique’s MT 45 per kg reference price buys 387 litres of diesel at today’s MT 116.25 a litre. Before the fuel adjustment of 7 May, when diesel cost MT 79.88, the same tonne bought 563 litres. That is a 31% loss in fuel purchasing power for a farmer whose price was held flat, and it is the year-end margin test in one number.

We write in late September 2026, so nothing below is an October result. October brings the next official readings: the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) consumer price release, the central bank’s quarterly goods table, and the cashew committee’s price decision. We set out what each should reveal and what a farm or buyer should do before they land.

The cost side is already set

Diesel and fertiliser costs were locked in before most crops were sold.

Carta de Moçambique records the 7 May adjustment: diesel rose MT 36.37 to MT 116.25 a litre, up 45.5%, while petrol rose 12.3% to MT 93.86. The Energy Regulatory Authority said Mozambique’s fuel prices remained low against southern African norms, and the government drew on a stabilisation fund of about MT 390 million to cushion public transport.

The central bank’s August monthly summary shows the bill arriving. Diesel imports were US$290.7 million in the second quarter against US$164.9 million in the first. Fertiliser imports were US$41.4 million against US$13.3 million, already 43% of the US$96.9 million for all of 2025. The government’s July announcement of US$75 million for certified maize, rice and bean seed, reported by AIM, covers seed but not fuel or fertiliser.

The price side is uneven

Retail food prices are falling in places while haulage costs keep rising.

O País’s report on August prices gives monthly deflation of 0.28%, with tomatoes down 16.3% in the month and mangoes up 53.0%. Transport prices were up 14.77% on the year, against 8.91% for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Among the cities, Tete’s 10.71% annual rate was more than double Maputo’s 4.08%, a spread that a grower selling into Tete and one selling into Maputo will feel differently.

The gap matters for margins. A horticulture grower who sees tomato prices drop while transport prices climb has lost on both lines. A cashew or tobacco grower, whose price is set once a season, carries the diesel increase for the whole year.

Three October readings

Each one tests a different link between the farm gate and the balance sheet.

First, the cashew price. The nuts committee fixed the 2025/26 producer reference at MT 45 per kg on 10 October 2025 and kept it unchanged, according to Observador. This year’s decision is the first set after the fuel adjustment. A figure at or below MT 45 would leave a tonne buying 387 litres of diesel or fewer, and a figure of MT 60 would lift that to 516 litres, our arithmetic.

Second, INE’s September price release, expected in mid-October, should show whether food prices have turned up with the start of the lean season or kept falling. Third, the central bank’s next goods table shows whether fertiliser and diesel import values keep rising into the planting window, since that spending commits cash before any crop is sold. Agricultural exports were US$634.2 million in 2025, but only US$119.6 million in the first quarter of 2026 and US$20.3 million in the second, so the cash cycle sits at the back end of the year.

What a farm, buyer or lender does now

Fix the input bill first and index the freight, because those are the lines still open.

Producers and aggregators should price the 2026/27 crop from diesel at MT 116.25 and not from last year’s MT 79.88, and should buy fertiliser early while import cash is flowing. A buyer who contracts for cashew, sesame or maize should write a fuel clause into freight, so that haulage moves with the pump price and neither party carries the whole swing.

Agri-lenders should ask borrowers for a margin sheet per hectare with three lines, diesel, fertiliser and transport, before they approve a season facility. The October cashew price is the first number to put into it.