October 2026 credit: the first read on an 18-month reserve incentive, from MT283.6bn

October 31, 2026

Wordless fine-line illustration: A reservoir behind a dam where a narrow side sluice is opened, a few irrigation channels beginning to fill toward dry fields while the main spillway stays level

Banco de Moçambique’s October monetary statistics will be the earliest test of whether a month-old policy reaches borrowers.

When Banco de Moçambique publishes its October 2026 monetary statistics, the number to read first is credit to the economy, which stood at MT283.6bn at the end of June 2026 according to the Bank’s own monthly summary. It was MT281.8bn in December 2025, so the first half of the year added less than 1%.

The October reading matters more than most because it is the first full month after the Monetary Policy Committee decided on 30 September to keep the MIMO rate at 9.25% and to open an 18-month reserve regime aimed at lending to import-substituting firms and exporters. We are writing in late September, so the October figures are not yet known; what follows is what to look for and why.

The base: easing that has not reached the loan book

Rates fell across 2025 and 2026; the stock of credit barely moved.

The Bank’s July 2026 statistical summary shows the prime rate at 18.00% in June 2025 and 15.50% in May 2026. On outstanding balances, the average one-year loan rate went from 23.60% to 22.00% between May 2025 and May 2026, while the one-year deposit rate went from 6.60% to 4.34%. Borrowers paid less; savers earned much less.

Yet credit to the economy from the banks stood at MT280.3bn in July 2025 and MT283.6bn in June 2026, a rise of about 1.2% over eleven months. Over the same stretch, banks’ net credit to the Government was MT203.5bn at the end of June 2026, close to the MT204.1bn of July 2025. Easing had lowered prices without enlarging the book.

The MIMO rate was held at 9.25% on 26 May and held again on 30 September, so the whole of the summer’s easing came from rates already in the system, not from a new cut.

The mechanism: a reserve deduction priced off MIMO

The new regime lets a qualifying loan reduce the cash a bank must lock up.

Banks must hold reserves at the central bank equal to a set share of their deposits; the requirement stood at 39% on domestic-currency liabilities after the May meeting, AIM reported. Under the regime approved on 30 September, banks may deduct amounts matching new local-currency financing to companies that substitute imports or raise exports, AIM reported. Governor Felisberto Navalha said the rate applied would be MIMO, with a possible margin of 150 basis points.

On that formula a qualifying loan would cost between 9.25% and 10.75%, set against a 15.50% prime and an average of 22.00% on the outstanding stock. The regime lasts 18 months. In lifecycle terms it is approved; whether it is operating at scale depends on the circulars and on banks’ appetite, which only the credit statistics will reveal.

What to watch on 31 October

Three numbers will say whether the incentive and the pressure on the Government’s borrowing balance out.

First, credit to the economy against the MT283.6bn June base. A move above MT290bn within a few months would be the first clear sign of response; a reading within a billion or two of the base says the reserve regime has not yet been used. Second, banks’ net credit to the Government. President Daniel Chapo told the new Governor on 2 September that frequent Government borrowing in the domestic market risks raising interest rates and crowding out private financing, Diário Económico reported. If net Government credit rises faster than lending to the economy, the crowding-out argument gains evidence.

Third, price. The prime rate was 15.50% in both April and May, and the Committee’s next ordinary meeting is on 25 November, according to O País. A steady prime with rising volumes would show the deduction working through quantity; rising volumes with a falling prime would show competition.

What a business does before the numbers arrive

Prepare the file now; the window is 18 months long but the first loans set the template.

Exporters and import-substituting producers should assemble the evidence a bank will need to classify a loan as qualifying: contracts, export history, local-content calculations. Ask the relationship manager directly whether the bank intends to price new qualifying lines at MIMO plus a margin. Read the October credit figure as a test of that answer, and compare it with what your own bank quotes in November.