Mozambique, July 2026: the 91-day bill peaks at 12.32% as state debt climbs to MT 538bn

July 31, 2026

Wordless fine-line illustration: A treasury counter where a short queue of clerks hands out heavy bags of coin faster than a long line of carts further back, with a wall chart of tilted bars behind them

The shortest bill yielded more than the longest, and the debt stock explains why.

The 91-day Treasury bill averaged 12.32% in July 2026, the highest monthly average of the year and 6 basis points above the 364-day bill, an inverted curve in a market that had been flat since January. The Banco de Moçambique’s Comité de Política Monetária left the MIMO rate at 9.25% on 29 July.

The inversion points to a state that needs cash soon and is paying for it. The committee’s communiqué of the same day gives the debt figure behind it: MT 538.3bn of internal public debt, up MT 63.7bn on December 2025, and MT 45bn more than the stock it reported in May.

What the July averages show

Everything the central bank prices stayed put; the bills did not.

In the monthly money-market averages, overnight swaps, interbank repo and seven-day reverse repo averaged 9.25% in July, and the reverse repo for 22 to 28 days 9.34%. The 91-day bill averaged 12.32%, up from 12.21% in June and 12.03% in January. The 182-day bill averaged 12.30% and the 364-day 12.26%.

The 91-day bill sat 307 basis points above the policy rate, the widest gap of any month this year. For a business, that is the price at which the banks were willing to fund the state for one quarter, and it exceeded what they asked for a full year.

The communiqué: liquidity, inflation and debt

Holding rates was justified by the reserve increase, not by calm prices.

Communiqué No. 4/2026 says the hold rests on lower meticais liquidity in the banking system following the May increase in the reserve ratio, despite high risks to the inflation outlook. It puts June inflation at 7.5% after 7.2% in May, expects prices to keep rising in the short run and forecasts a return to single digits over the medium term.

The committee reported first-quarter output ex-LNG up 1.1% after 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and including LNG down 0.1%. It also reported that first-half purchases of foreign currency by commercial banks reached US$4.24 billion, US$352 million more than a year earlier, which tells exporters and importers that dollar liquidity was not the constraint in July. It described the banking sector as solvent, with a solvency ratio of 28.1% in June and short-term liquidity cover of 55.2%, both above minimum limits.

Where July’s liquidity went

Lending to the state grew MT 5.9bn while lending to the economy shrank.

The Banco de Moçambique summary carrying July shows bank reserves at MT 301.7bn, MT 1.2bn lower than in June, and credit to the economy at MT 282.4bn, MT 1.2bn lower. Banks’ net credit to the state rose from MT 203.5bn to MT 209.4bn.

The Instituto Nacional de Estatística recorded annual inflation of 7.48% in July, with prices falling 0.26% on the month as vegetables dropped, according to Jornal Económico. The monthly decline is a seasonal relief and not a trend, since transport and food remained the categories running hottest against July 2025.

What an investor or lender takes from an inverted bill curve

When short paper pays more than long, the state’s cash need is near-term.

A company with surplus meticais looking at three-month and twelve-month bills should note that the short bill paid more in July. Rolling 91-day paper at 12.32% beat locking in a year at 12.26%, though only by a sliver, and it keeps the cash available if the committee tightens at its next meeting.

For lenders to suppliers of the state, the debt figure matters more than the yield. A stock growing by MT 45bn in two months is a growing queue of payments, and the communiqué links arrears to weak appetite for public paper. Ask any state-linked counterparty for its payment schedule this month, and price receivables from public bodies at the 91-day bill rate plus a delay allowance.