Mozambique’s May 2026 external file: US$3.50bn reserves, 2.2 months’ cover, a 39% rule

May 31, 2026

Wordless fine-line illustration: A bank vault clerk stacking bundles of banknotes onto a higher shelf inside a strongroom while a queue at the street-side exchange window shortens

Reserves edged up, the cover ratio dropped and the central bank pulled a monetary lever that also touches the dollar market.

Mozambique’s net international reserves grew by about 1% in May 2026, from US$3,470.1 million to a first print of US$3,496.6 million that the Banco de Moçambique (BdM) later restated to US$3,503.8 million. The same summary shows cover of 2.2 months of total imports, down from 3.1 in April, and 4.5 months excluding large projects, down from 4.8.

The month also carried a decision that belongs in an external-sector file even though it is monetary. On 25 May the Comité de Política Monetária (CPMO) left its 9.25% policy rate alone but lifted the compulsory reserve ratio on metical deposits from 29% to 39%. The exchange-house dollar ended the month 9.7% above the reference rate, down from 11.2% at the end of April.

A small rise, two versions of the number

Store the first print and the restated print, and quote the one that matches the release date.

The BdM’s June summary closes May at US$3,496.6 million. The following month’s summary opens June at US$3,503.8 million, and the Lusa report carried by Jornal Económico gives US$3,503 million, a rise of 1% on April. The gap of US$7 million is small, but it repeats the December-to-January pattern, in which an opening balance differed from the closing print of the month before.

The same report quotes Governor Rogério Zandamela saying on 25 May that the reserves stood practically at five months of imports, which he called extremely comfortable, and that the bank had not become weaker because of the early IMF settlement. Five months is the governor’s shorthand and sits close to the 4.5-month projects-excluded ratio in the summary. It does not sit close to 2.2 months, so a reader quoting either figure should name the base.

Why total cover fell by nearly a third in one month

The total ratio dropped 0.9 months while the projects-excluded ratio dropped 0.3, so the movement lies in the large-project import base.

Cover fell from 3.1 to 2.2 months on total imports, while the ratio that removes large projects moved from 4.8 to 4.5. The distance between the two ratios widened from 1.7 months in April to 2.3 in May. Reserves were up, so the numerator cannot explain it. Whatever entered the total import base in May did not enter the ordinary-trade base.

The summary does not say what it was, and the quarterly goods table cannot settle it, because its latest column covers January to March. The disciplined entry for the file is therefore the printed ratios, the widening gap, and an open question to resolve when the first-quarter trade print arrives. Guessing at a cause would put an unverified number into a dashboard that other people will use.

The 25 May decision: a liquidity tool with a dollar shadow

Raising the metical reserve requirement to 39% removes meticais from the banks, which is the currency that buys dollars at exchange houses.

According to Economia & Mercado, the committee held the MIMO rate at 9.25% for a second consecutive meeting, moved the coefficient for metical deposits from 29% to 39% with the aim of mopping up surplus liquidity, and left the foreign-currency coefficient at 29.5%. It cited annual inflation of 4.4% in April, up from 3.4% in March, and warned of a possible acceleration linked to the Middle East conflict, with fuel and food prices as the channels.

The mechanism runs through bank balance sheets. For every 100 meticais of deposits a bank must now hold 39 at the BdM instead of 29, so it has 10 fewer meticais to lend, to place in Bilhetes do Tesouro or to lay off into the informal exchange market through clients. Diário Económico reported in July that banks’ compulsory reserves rose about 31% in May to MT308.8 billion, which shows how quickly the rule bit.

The street rate after the rule change

The exchange-house premium fell 1.5 points in May, consistent with tighter metical liquidity, though one month proves nothing.

On 31 May the reference quotation was 63.27 for purchases and 64.54 for sales, banks quoted 63.38 and 64.59, and exchange houses quoted 69.50 and 70.79. The house offer was 9.7% above the reference, against 11.2% on 30 April and a peak of 11.4% on 31 March. The order of events fits the theory that tighter metical liquidity cools demand for street dollars.

It is a fit, not a proof. The rule was announced on 25 May, six days before month-end, the premium had already eased from its March high, and the BdM itself stated inflation and Middle East risk as its reasons, not the exchange market. The file should log the premium at each month-end and let the June and July prints show whether the fall persists.

What to change in the May file

Add a policy panel: the requirement ratio, the MIMO rate and the premium sit together.

Add a fifth panel to the external file that lists the policy settings likely to influence the dollar market: MIMO at 9.25%, the 39% metical requirement, the 29.5% foreign-currency requirement and the date of the next CPMO meeting, which was set for 29 July. Read the premium against those dates.

For a company, the near-term consequence is on funding cost and lending appetite rather than on the exchange rate. Corporate treasurers who rely on overdrafts or short-term meticais lines should test their facilities with the bank now, and ask what pricing the bank intends to apply once its own liquidity is 10 percentage points tighter, and exporters should not treat the fall in the premium as a signal to delay conversion until the persistence question is answered.