October 2026 external payments will test a US$3.44bn reserve stock and 2.2 months of cover

October 31, 2026

Wordless fine-line illustration: A harbour cistern fed by two pipes at the top and drained by three wider pipes at the bottom, its water line sitting just above a painted marker

Banco de Moçambique’s October reserve table will show whether dollar inflows can again match what banks, the state and project importers draw out.

When Banco de Moçambique closes its October 2026 external-statistics cycle, the number to read first is the change in net international reserves from the US$3,436m recorded for July, the lowest in at least twelve months according to Executive Digest. The month’s table will show whether dollars coming in matched dollars going out.

The balance is thin. The central bank’s own footnote puts June cover at 2.2 months of total imports, rising to 4.5 months once the large projects are excluded. S&P Global Ratings cut Mozambique to CCC on 25 September, five weeks before the reference month closes.

Two columns, one stock

The reserve table is a ledger of flows, and a small gap between them moves the stock.

The central bank publishes each month a table of inflows and outflows behind net reserves. For June 2026, in the monthly statistical summary, total inflows were US$440.7m and total outflows US$445.6m, and the stock moved from US$3,503.8m to US$3,463.8m. Inflows include banks funding their dollar accounts, state project receipts and miscellaneous purchases; outflows include transfers by banks, other state payments and exchange-rate losses.

O País reported that for the following month the central bank recorded about US$213m of inflows against US$261.7m of outflows, a net drain of roughly US$27m, with a Q2 goods deficit near US$320m and foreign direct investment down from US$1.33bn in the first quarter to US$590m. Those are the two quantities that October’s table will extend.

What the state owes in foreign currency

The 2026 budget carries about MT47.6bn of external debt service.

The 2026 budget proposal puts external interest at MT11,143.8m and external amortisation at MT36,450.8m, together MT47,594.6m. Converted at the 30 June reference selling rate of MT64.53 per dollar, that is about US$738m, which is our calculation. The proposal does not date the payments within the year.

The sovereign’s largest listed instrument is the 2031 Eurobond. S&P puts it at US$900m with a 9% coupon, around US$81m a year, and amortisation of US$225m a year from March 2028. No Eurobond principal falls due in 2026, so the pressure this October is on the stock of dollars, not on a principal date.

What importers and banks will draw

Private demand for dollars, not sovereign principal, is the larger daily pull.

In the second quarter, O País reported exports of US$1.89bn against imports of US$2.21bn. Business leaders, quoted by Executive Digest, called the foreign-exchange position an economic emergency, with firms short of dollars to import and to fulfil contracts.

Banks sit between those importers and the reserve stock. They fund their dollar accounts at the central bank, which is an inflow, and transfer dollars abroad for clients, which is an outflow. In June, funding was US$102.3m and transfers US$123.6m, a gap of US$21.3m. October will show whether the end-of-year rush for stock and equipment widened it.

What to look for in the October table

Four lines decide whether the stock holds near US$3.4bn.

First, bank funding against bank transfers. Second, state inflows from projects against other state payments. Third, the size of exchange-rate losses, which reached US$72.0m in June. Fourth, the cover footnote, which was 2.2 months in June. S&P, as reported by O Económico, puts usable reserves at about US$3.5bn in August, so a reading below US$3.4bn for October would extend the slide from the US$4,258m of February.

The 2026 budget proposal assumed net reserves of US$2,400m by December, below today’s level. That leaves headroom in plan terms, even as the market feels the shortage.

What businesses should do before the release

Plan dollar needs by quarter, and ask banks for allocation dates.

Importers with year-end orders should request from their bank a written schedule of when dollar allocations will be settled, and pull forward any payment that can be made before the quarter closes. Exporters should price in meticais only where the bank confirms conversion terms. Treasurers should read the October reserve table as soon as it appears and compare its bank-transfer line with June before committing to first-quarter 2027 orders.